Autumn Statement: A cautious sigh of relief for the housing market

The housing market was on tenterhooks early in the week. I’m happy to say that the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement is likely to bring a sense of calm to the market.


The news from Downing Street has been pretty grim for the last few months.

But, I broadly welcome the news for the housing market following the Chancellor’s announcement in the House of Commons earlier today.

The outlook for the property market could have been much worse when considering the broader economic forecast and the measures that the Government may have been forced to take to settle things down following the disastrous experiment inflicted on our economy by Truss and Kwarteng.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts house prices to be up by 10.7% by the end of this year but expects them to fall in 2023 and 2024 by around 9% over the two years. Beyond that, they suggest prices will rise again in 2025 and increase still further in 2026/7.

This suggests a more balanced market than we have seen over the past two years, which many will welcome, although factors beyond economic forecasting could still buck the trend.

These figures tend to be calculated against stretched household incomes, and the availability of competitive mortgage interest rates whilst the housing market is subject to less certain factors which cannot be predicted.

Supply levels have been restricted in recent years, and working-from-home freedoms have been a significant driver since the pandemic. Both could continue to prevail, upsetting predictions.

The OBR does not mention previously announced Stamp Duty savings, which the Chancellor announced he will ‘sunset’ and will end in 2025. We could see another rush of buyers eager to secure lower moving costs and beat another somewhat artificial deadline.

The Chancellor acknowledged the importance of the property market as an economic multiplier, suggesting that additional support could be on the cards in the future.

There was bad news for those planning to sell second homes with a reduction in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) allowances dropping from £12,300 to £6,000 from April 2023 and to £3,000 from April 2024. But considering recent house price inflation, capital appreciation in recent years might counter the extra tax payable.

Many moving home will welcome a more even balance of supply and demand. With the days of soaring house prices behind us, I predict that we will see calmer trading conditions for a few years, which may suit both buyers and sellers.

And so to the ‘sixty-four-dollar’ question – what will house prices do in 2023?

Several organisations much larger than Hobbs Parker, with expensive research departments, think house prices will likely fall by 8% to 12% in 2023.

Whilst this may be the case for the country as a whole, I think it’s essential to consider local factors and the merits of an individual property.

Demand for good properties in good locations remains strong. Many people buying properties through Hobbs Parker are in a financially secure position and less impacted by mortgage rates and inflationary pressures.

For many, a moderate ‘correction’ in property prices is helpful as it reduces the amount of borrowing required.

I’ve always believed that if the property and time are right for you, and your planned move is affordable, then the vagaries of the property market, which are all but impossible to predict with any substantial degree of certainty, should not hold you back.

Buying a house is a medium to long-term investment, and I can’t remember many times in my career when buying a property has proved to have been a poor decision five years on.

 


Making the most of your property

Would you like us to send you a quick email when we publish our next article?

These will include tips and advice on how to maximise your enjoyment and return on investment from you property.

Other Recent Articles

View all

Launch Weekend at ‘Four Oaks’ Bossingham, Nr Canterbury

By Alex Davies

Two styles are available, but all overlook the countryside and are within walking distance of the primary school and The Minnis, about 124 acres of ramblers paradise!

Find out more

Historic Property Auction Particulars -- Mersham 1878

By Roger Lightfoot

These have been hanging on the wall in our boardroom for as long as I can remember. I recently happened to ‘bump into’ two of the current owners of the cottages when I gave a […]

Find out more

Livestock, land and property prices in 1972

By Roger Lightfoot

Our Annual Report from 1972 includes prices and expert views from our former partners for livestock, residential, agricultural and investment property in the South East.

Find out more

Stunning photos of Mersham in the winter

By Roger Lightfoot

Thank you to Stuart Rodda for allowing us to use his stunning photos taken recently whilst walking his dog in the fields close to Mersham.

Find out more

Autumn Statement: A cautious sigh of relief for the housing market

By Alex Davies

The news from Downing Street has been pretty grim for the last few months. But, I broadly welcome the news for the housing market following the Chancellor’s announcement in the House of Commons earlier today. […]

Find out more

Should I put my house on the market before Christmas?

By Simon Godfrey

We get asked this every year in the weeks leading up to Christmas. This year’s answer might surprise you.

Find out more

Gold award from our clients

By Alex Davies

Our estate agents team have been awarded Gold for the Best Agent in Ashford by allAgents.co.uk

Find out more

Should I buy a house in a Conservation Area?

By Greg Wood

There are some wonderful properties in the Conservation Areas in Kent and East Sussex but buyers need to make sure they understand the strict planning rules designed to preserve the character of these locations.

Find out more

How I nearly made a pig's ear of selling my own house

By Bill Lightfoot

Have you ever asked for advice and then ignored it? I guess we all have. Hobbs Parker was founded by my great-great-great-grandfather in 1850. My Dad worked here for 42 years and I’ve been working […]

Find out more

Post Stamp Duty Holiday: What next for the property market?

By Alex Davies

When Rishi Sunak announced a temporary Stamp Duty holiday on July 8th 2020 to counter the effects of the Pandemic, homebuyers celebrated the chance to save on buying costs. Was he right to do it? […]

Find out more

Wye - Kent's Super Village

By Greg Wood

So what is it about the village of Wye that creates it’s extraordinary reputation? Unlike many villages in my part of Kent that are equally as pretty and have local facilities, it has a selection […]

Find out more

Millie Green - A Review of Ashford

By Roger Lightfoot

The Kentish town of Ashford is known for many things: the International Station, the Designer Outlet and a plethora of secondary schools. These are all great assets to the town, but at Hobbs Parker we […]

Find out more

Stamp Duty Savings - are you buying a house with an Annexe?

By Alex Davies

“We sell many homes with accommodation that is separate to the principal home but very few buyers are aware of the Stamp Duty savings they may be entitled to.” Alex Davies

Find out more

Very small ski chalet for sale!

By Sarah Holgate

It's tempting to take snowing photos of your home when selling it. But is this a good idea?

Find out more

How many Ashfords are there in the UK?

By Roger Lightfoot

Our website contains a database of all the villages, towns and cities in the UK. We combined this data with Google Maps to created this map of all the Ashfords in the UK. Note: There […]

Find out more

The 50 Most Popular Villages

By Roger Lightfoot

Our website is very busy — every day up to 6,000 people visit our website. Many are researching the ideal location for their next home and spend some time reading about the towns and villages […]

Find out more

Tips to help you establish a great Wild Garden

By Alex Davies

If you’ve been watching TV nature and gardening programmes lately, you’ll have seen a lot of interest in wild gardens. There are many advantages to wild gardens: they cover the ground in a beautiful mix […]

Find out more

Tips for buyers and sellers when dealing with properties from a bygone era

By Alex Davies

The first clue upon arrival is the general look of neglect. Tired net curtains hanging at the windows, peeling paintwork, stains from a leaking gutter, a rusty gate opening on to an entrance path overgrown […]

Find out more

Will Netflix and Amazon affect property prices in Ashford?

By Alex Davies

There has been talk of an Ashford metamorphosis for almost as long as I can remember. The opening of the ‘Missing Link’ of the M20 motorway between Ashford and Maidstone in 1991 would surely bring […]

Find out more

Post-Coronavirus property market predictions

By Alex Davies

Savills research team recently offered some interesting analysis of what a UK property market recovery could look like post-Coronavirus predicting transaction volumes could be down by up to 45% for 2020 with the greatest impact […]

Find out more

Bucking the national property 'downturn'

By Alex Davies

It is true that we agree lots of sales, even when many properties appear to be sticking but I can tell you it doesn’t come easily and not without a lot of hard work. When […]

Find out more

Why 2019 is the right time to invest in Ashford

By Sally Randall

“If you have ever wished you’d invested somewhere that has regenerated, you will know that you are already too late.” These are the words of Alex Davies, Managing Director for Hobbs Parker Estate Agents, an […]

Find out more

Listed Buildings Advice

The market for period property is booming and the older the house or cottage, the more likely it is to be listed. By listing a property, it celebrates a building’s special architectural and historic features […]

Find out more

Will your second home also be your pension?

By Simon Godfrey

Recent research suggests that the level of income people aspire to retire on each year has increased from £35,000 to £42,000 yet this would require a pension pot of more than £1 million. Evidence shows […]

Find out more

Will solar panels increase the value of my home?

By Alex Davies

As the weather gets colder and darker, and the heating and lights stay on longer, there’s one thing I can predict with even more certainty than the Queen’s Speech broadcasting on Christmas Day. The arrival […]

Find out more

Why do kitchens sell houses?

By Alex Davies

The party is in the kitchen! When we have a party at our house my wife and I spend hours making our living room look nice and then most of the evening trying to get […]

Find out more